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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still